Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 8th, 2021

Stephanie Barritt • December 8, 2021

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate and forward guidance


The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank’s extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate is being maintained. The Bank is continuing its reinvestment phase, keeping its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds roughly constant.


The global economy continues to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic growth in the United States has accelerated, led by consumption, while growth in some other regions is moderating after a strong third quarter. Inflation has increased further in many countries, reflecting strong demand for goods amid ongoing supply disruptions. The new Omicron COVID-19 variant has prompted a tightening of travel restrictions in many countries and a decline in oil prices, and has injected renewed uncertainty. Accommodative financial conditions are still supporting economic activity.


Canada’s economy grew by about 5½ percent in the third quarter, as expected. Together with a downward revision to the second quarter, this brings the level of GDP to about 1½ percent below its level in the last quarter of 2019, before the pandemic began. Third-quarter growth was led by a rebound in consumption, particularly services, as restrictions were further eased and higher vaccination rates improved confidence. Persistent supply bottlenecks continued to inhibit growth in other components of GDP, including non-commodity exports and business investment.


Recent economic indicators suggest the economy had considerable momentum into the fourth quarter. This includes broad-based job gains in recent months that have brought the employment rate essentially back to its pre-pandemic level. Job vacancies remain elevated and wage growth has also picked up. Housing activity had been moderating, but appears to be regaining strength, notably in resales. The devastating floods in British Columbia and uncertainties arising from the Omicron variant could weigh on growth by compounding supply chain disruptions and reducing demand for some services. 


CPI inflation is elevated and the impact of global supply constraints is feeding through to a broader range of goods prices. The effects of these constraints on prices will likely take some time to work their way through, given existing supply backlogs. Gasoline prices, which had been a major factor pushing up CPI inflation, have recently declined. Meanwhile, core measures of inflation are little changed since September. The Bank continues to expect CPI inflation to remain elevated in the first half of 2022 and ease back towards 2 percent in the second half of the year. The Bank is closely watching inflation expectations and labour costs to ensure that the forces pushing up prices do not become embedded in ongoing inflation.


The Governing Council judges that in view of ongoing excess capacity, the economy continues to require considerable monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s October projection, this happens sometime in the middle quarters of 2022. We will provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation target.


Information note


The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 26, 2022. The Bank will publish its full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report at the same time.


STEPHANIE BARRITT
MORTGAGE EXPERT

CONTACT ME
RECENT POSTS

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 10th, 2025

By Stephanie Barritt • December 10, 2025
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2.1/4%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario December 10, 2025 The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Canada’s economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility. Canada’s labour market is showing some signs of improvement. Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months and the unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in November. Nevertheless, job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, as gasoline prices fell and food prices rose more slowly. CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year, while measures of core inflation remain in the range of 2½% to 3%. The Bank assesses that underlying inflation is still around 2½%. In the near term, CPI inflation is likely to be higher due to the effects of last year’s GST/HST holiday on the prices of some goods and services. Looking through this choppiness, the Bank expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation close to the 2% target. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Uncertainty remains elevated. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 28, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released at the same time.

Your Guide to Successfully Navigating the Housing Market

By Stephanie Barritt • December 3, 2025
Wondering If Now’s the Right Time to Buy a Home? Start With These Questions Instead. Whether you're looking to buy your first home, move into something bigger, downsize, or find that perfect place to retire, it’s normal to feel unsure—especially with all the noise in the news about the economy and the housing market. The truth is, even in the most stable times, predicting the “perfect” time to buy a home is incredibly hard. The market will always have its ups and downs, and the headlines will never give you the full story. So instead of trying to time the market, here’s a different approach: Focus on your personal readiness—because that’s what truly matters. Here are some key questions to reflect on that can help bring clarity: Would owning a home right now put me in a stronger financial position in the long run? Can I comfortably afford a mortgage while maintaining the lifestyle I want? Is my job or income stable enough to support a new home? Do I have enough saved for a down payment, closing costs, and a little buffer? How long do I plan to stay in the property? If I had to sell earlier than planned, would I be financially okay? Will buying a home now support my long-term goals? Am I ready because I want to buy, or because I feel pressure to act quickly? Am I hesitating because of market fears, or do I have legitimate concerns? These are personal questions, not market ones—and that’s the point. The economy might change tomorrow, but your answers today can guide you toward a decision that actually fits your life. Here’s How I Can Help Buying a home doesn’t have to be stressful when you have a plan and someone to guide you through it. If you want to explore your options, talk through your goals, or just get a better sense of what’s possible, I’m here to help. The best place to start? A mortgage pre-approval . It’s free, it doesn’t lock you into anything, and it gives you a clear picture of what you can afford—so you can move forward with confidence, whether that means buying now or waiting. You don’t have to figure this out alone. If you’re curious, let’s talk. Together, we can map out a homebuying plan that works for you.